I will appreciate a quick response to this hw submission so as to make the next necessary move if necessary Document Preview: Heres an example of some attrition Modeling /Simulation questions with solution from previous hw: The question set may not be identically the same, but the general concept are similarly applied (20 pts) Part 2: Unit-Level Fatigue Hit Point Damage Model (4) Develop and submit a MC, turn-based, hit point, combat simulator that will enable you to evaluate two competing unit designs. Inputs: StrU1o, StrU2o, AtkU1o, and AtkU2o Calculation: Use the fatigue hit point model (#4) to calculate StrU1(i) and StrU2(i). Battle ends when one (or both) unit(s) have a Str = 0. Assume simultaneous combat Assume each turn is 1 hr. Output: Text: Battle Duration, StrU1f, StrU2f Graphics: Show StrU1 and StrU2 vs. time. (4) Submit a screen shot of the result of running this simulation for StrU1 = 40 AtkU1 = 10 Str U2 = 45 AtkU2 = 8 (11)Analysis: (1) Prior to performing the rest of this analysis, which unit do you believe to be the better unit? Explain. (5) Run the model 20 times and from the results estimate: Battle # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Duration (hr) 13 23 14 16 18 15 10 16 26 15 U1f 0 8.7 13.8 0 20.2 17.4 23 0 0 0 U2f 19.9 0 0 14.5 0 0 0 21.1 0 19.2 (I only did 10 runs) The probability that Unit 1 will win a battle with Unit 2: Pw1 = 5/10 = 0.5 The probability that Unit 2 will win a battle with Unit 1: Pw2 = 4/10 = 0.4 The probability that they will tie: Pt = 1/10 = 0.1 The average duration of a battle between them E(BD) = Sum(BDi)/N = 16.5 hours The average final strength of Unit 1 (given it won the battle). E(U1fw) = Sum(U1fi)/5 = 17.4 hit points (3) Which unit is better? Explain. Is it significantly better? Explain. While Unit 1 appears to be ~25% better than Unit 2 (i.e., (P1w-P2w)/P2w), it is not yet statistically significant. Assuming the same results after 20 runs, the uncertainty in probability is 0.11 (see iv). Since P1w-P2w there is not a significant difference (statistically). However, Attachments: Hw-assignment.zip Attrition-mod.docx; I will appreciate a quick response to this hw submission so as to make the next necessary move if necessary Document Preview: Heres an example of some attrition Modeling /Simulation questions with solution from previous hw: The question set may not be identically the same, but the general concept are similarly applied (20 pts) Part 2: Unit-Level Fatigue Hit Point Damage Model (4) Develop and submit a MC, turn-based, hit point, combat simulator that will enable you to evaluate two competing unit designs. Inputs: StrU1o, StrU2o, AtkU1o, and AtkU2o Calculation: Use the fatigue hit point model (#4) to calculate StrU1(i) and StrU2(i). Battle ends when one (or both) unit(s) have a Str = 0. Assume simultaneous combat Assume each turn is 1 hr. Output: Text: Battle Duration, StrU1f, StrU2f Graphics: Show StrU1 and StrU2 vs. time. (4) Submit a screen shot of the result of running this simulation for StrU1 = 40 AtkU1 = 10 Str U2 = 45 AtkU2 = 8 (11)Analysis: (1) Prior to performing the rest of this analysis, which unit do you believe to be the better unit? Explain. (5) Run the model 20 times and from the results estimate: Battle # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Duration (hr) 13 23 14 16 18 15 10 16 26 15 U1f 0 8.7 13.8 0 20.2 17.4 23 0 0 0 U2f 19.9 0 0 14.5 0 0 0 21.1 0 19.2 (I only did 10 runs) The probability that Unit 1 will win a battle with Unit 2: Pw1 = 5/10 = 0.5 The probability that Unit 2 will win a battle with Unit 1: Pw2 = 4/10 = 0.4 The probability that they will tie: Pt = 1/10 = 0.1 The average duration of a battle between them E(BD) = Sum(BDi)/N = 16.5 hours The average final strength of Unit 1 (given it won the battle). E(U1fw) = Sum(U1fi)/5 = 17.4 hit points (3) Which unit is better? Explain. Is it significantly better? Explain. While Unit 1 appears to be ~25% better than Unit 2 (i.e., (P1w-P2w)/P2w), it is not yet statistically significant. Assuming the same results after 20 runs, the uncertainty in probability is 0.11 (see iv). Since P1w-P2w there is not a significant difference (statistically). However, Attachments: Hw-assignment.zip Attrition-mod.docx
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