Now that you have some appreciation of what the confirmation heuristic is, as well as the ways in which it can be manifested in the form of biased assessments of probability, recall some occasion in which you retrospectively see yourself as guilty of one of the five biases that Bazerman and Moore identify. That is, you made a systematically distorted estimate of probability that in some specifiable way contributed to making a poor decision. If you had the opportunity to make the decision again, what would you have done differently? How would your changes have helped to make a better decision? If you cannot think of a case from your own experience, select one in which you were able to observe what another person or group may have done that resulted in a poor decision based on one of the biases covered in the reading assignment. Indicate what you feel the other party or parties could have done to make a more accurate probability estimate and, hence, a better decision.
Describe the situation in sufficient detail that a reader will have a clear sense of how a probability estimate was necessary to reach the decision and how you (or the other party/parties) went about making it. As with other lessons, be sure to ground the analysis in appropriate references to the reading assignment
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