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Negative campaign ads do affect presidential vote choice.
Literature review on presidential vote choice and synthesis for the first 5 pages. Analysis to support/counter the hypothesis in the last 5 pages.
I volunteered for the Romney campaign, phone-banking. I called 68 people over the course of 12 hours. As a followup question to them, I asked if they had seen a negative campaign ad in the presidential race. 45 answered yes, 8 answered no, and 15 were unsure. If they answered that they had seen a negative campaign ad, I asked if it changed their vote. 38 of them answered no. This would refute my hypothesis.
My elite interview was with Josh Romney, and it was less than 30 seconds at a campaign stop in Council Bluffs, IA. I asked him if he had seen the negative ads running. He answered "Yes, but I try not to pay attention to them." I then asked if he thinks they affect voters. He replied that they may affect some, but not most.
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